How we selected our methodology: We tested over 200 unique forecasting models with out-of-sample validation across 80 multi-asset portfolios and more than 40 years of historical data. Our goal is to offer the most distributionally accurate, research-driven, plug-and-play portfolio forecasting solution for investors.
Download Forecasting Methodology White Paper (PDF)Methodology
General
Simfolio connects portfolio construction, historical analysis, forecasting, and brokerage monitoring in one research workflow. A portfolio policy combines its holdings with the rules for rebalancing, costs, contributions, and withdrawals.
Data Sources
Historical coverage reflects the availability and overlap of the required market, currency, and economic series. Constructed histories are identified separately in the Simulated Ticker Catalogue.
Live
Live connects reported brokerage holdings with a saved portfolio policy. It shows the current allocation, differences from target weights, and estimates for planned portfolio actions.
Backtesting
A backtest replays a portfolio policy through observed market history, including allocation changes, trading costs, recurring drag, and external cash flows.
Forecasting
Forecasting simulates future asset returns and applies the portfolio policy within each scenario, producing distributions of wealth, risk, and cash-flow outcomes.
Investment Tools
Standalone tools examine specific portfolio questions using their own selected inputs. Saved portfolios can supply allocations; each tool applies the assumptions described below rather than inheriting every setting from a Research workspace.
Overview: Historical tools evaluate observed samples; goal-based tools evaluate decisions across eligible historical periods; deterministic calculators solve from stated assumptions. Their results retain these distinctions even when displayed together.
Limitations
Results are conditional on their data, selected policies, and modeling assumptions. Historical observations, simulated distributions, and account estimates represent different forms of evidence.
Research
The references below document the data sources and statistical foundations used across Simfolio. The forecasting white paper provides the model-specific validation record.